Nickajack Angler
Well-known member
"CUTS LIKE A KNIFE, BUT IT FEELS SO RIGHT" Bryan Adams And financial pros will tell you it's wise to never try and catch a falling knife. Seems like decent advice in general - but in the financial world, it means that when the price of a Stock or Bond is in the midst of a severe decline, be very cautious about stepping in to buy...even if it feels so right because the price starts to look cheap. That's because when prices declines sharply, it often gets even worse, making it hard to call the bottom. That's why many investors, who attempt to buy on the way down, say the feeling cuts like a knife. And over the past week - Bonds have been dropping much like a knife, and home loan rates have risen by about .25% across the board.
And speaking of sharp objects, Cupid's arrows might have been flying around everywhere last week - but little love came calling for the Bond market. First, Retail Sales for January were far better than expected - which was good news for Stocks, but as money flowed into Stocks, pulled money out of Bonds and caused Bond prices to move lower. Next, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave it to us straight from the heart, as he testified that the Fed would keep the door open to more rate cuts, which worried Bond Traders about the risk of more inflation ahead. And unlike the media seems to believe, cuts to the Fed Funds Rate generally cause home loan rates to rise, not decline. Why? Because Fed Rate Cuts can spur on more inflation, as it becomes less expensive to finance business and personal purchases. And as a result, inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond - so in the face of inflation, Bond prices fall, and home loan rates rise.
Finally, Moody's credit rating agency downgraded FGIC - one of the very largest Bond insurers in the world. This is another concern for Bonds, as the downgrades of Bond insurers in turn threaten the ratings of the Bonds they insure. If the added safety from insurance on Bonds is in doubt, the yield or rate on those underlying Bonds must increase to compensate investors for the additional risk. All in all - a tough week for Bonds and home loan rates - read on to find what's in store for the week ahead.
Forecast for the Week
After a closed market on Monday, all of the coming week's economic reports will be delivered on Wednesday and Thursday - but don't expect that any volatility will be limited to those days.
The most recent read on inflation will come via the Consumer Price Index, being reported on Wednesday alongside the latest Housing Starts and Permits data. And of particular interest - the "Meeting Minutes" from the last Federal Reserve meeting will be released as well. These Minutes give the inside commentary between members - and remember, Dallas Fed President Richard "Loose Lips" Fisher was not in agreement with the most recent cut to the Fed Funds Rate. His seemingly uncontrollable remarks regarding his concerns over inflation have rocked the markets of late, with Mortgage Bonds losing 187 basis points since his tirade on February 7th - that translates into about .375% higher for home loan rates. Bottom line - the inflation data and Fed Meeting Minutes could be real market movers. Since inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond, if the news of the week continues to reek of inflation - this could spell more bad news for Bonds and home loan rates.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 15, 2008)
THE TAX MAN COMETH...
And along with the tax man come the inevitable new breed of scam artists. Be on guard - criminals who want your personal information use this hectic and confusing time of year to prey on unsuspecting individuals.
Watch out for unscrupulous scammers, who are sending emails that appear to be from the IRS. The content of the emails are often written to persuade you to link to a website that will allow you to update your data or receive important information. Remember, these phony emails are quite sophisticated, and the links send you to what usually appear to be legitimate IRS or government websites. In reality, they are not. These sites will prompt you to divulge private information under the guise of the IRS requiring it, to offer a larger refund, or sometimes, ironically, to protect you from identity theft or loss of privacy.
There are some simple steps you can take to avoid falling prey to one of these scams.
Always Be Suspicious of Emails. Remember, the IRS does NOT initiate communication with taxpayers through email, but rather through the regular mail. If you receive an email that says it's from the IRS, you should immediately be suspicious and should forward it in its entirety to the IRS, so that they can take steps to shut down the fraudulent and bogus websites. The IRS requests that you forward all questionable emails to [email protected].
Double Check the URL Address. Keep in mind that all IRS websites begin with the following web address: http://www.irs.gov/ . So, if you ever click a link in an email or visit a website that you believe is related to the IRS, the first thing you should do is confirm the website begins with the correct URL address. Remember, sometimes it may "look" legitimate, but is actually an imposter site that is "phishing" for information. So always, always double check the actual URL address before you type any information in the site.
Exercise Extreme Caution with Attachments. When it comes to questionable emails, the best practice is to never open any attachments. That's because attachments are an extremely common method that hackers use to infect your computer with programs that may harm your computer or steal your personal information--often without you even knowing!
In today's technological environment, electronic communication offers us tremendous speed and convenience. But it can also be used for unethical purposes by scammers. Most organizations have worked very hard to put strict privacy policies in place. As a result, government agencies and financial institutions will rarely, if ever, ask you to divulge personal information via email.
If you receive any email asking for personal information of any kind, you should immediately be suspicious. When in doubt, call the customer service lines listed on your statements or documents and discuss the email that you received.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 18 ? February 22
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Wed. February 20 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1035K 1068K Moderate
Wed. February 20 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1000K 1006K Moderate
Wed. February 20 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.3% 0.2% HIGH
Wed. February 20 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.3% 0.3% HIGH
Wed. February 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 2/16 NA 1066K Moderate
Wed. February 20 02:00 FOMC Minutes 1/30 HIGH
Thu. February 21 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/16 355K 348K Moderate
Thu. February 21 10:00 Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI) Jan -0.1% -0.2% Low
Thu. February 21 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Feb -10.0 -20.9 HIGH
From our newsletter... hope this can provide some value to many of you. Always open to answer your questions relating to your financial health. Tight lines!
And speaking of sharp objects, Cupid's arrows might have been flying around everywhere last week - but little love came calling for the Bond market. First, Retail Sales for January were far better than expected - which was good news for Stocks, but as money flowed into Stocks, pulled money out of Bonds and caused Bond prices to move lower. Next, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave it to us straight from the heart, as he testified that the Fed would keep the door open to more rate cuts, which worried Bond Traders about the risk of more inflation ahead. And unlike the media seems to believe, cuts to the Fed Funds Rate generally cause home loan rates to rise, not decline. Why? Because Fed Rate Cuts can spur on more inflation, as it becomes less expensive to finance business and personal purchases. And as a result, inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond - so in the face of inflation, Bond prices fall, and home loan rates rise.
Finally, Moody's credit rating agency downgraded FGIC - one of the very largest Bond insurers in the world. This is another concern for Bonds, as the downgrades of Bond insurers in turn threaten the ratings of the Bonds they insure. If the added safety from insurance on Bonds is in doubt, the yield or rate on those underlying Bonds must increase to compensate investors for the additional risk. All in all - a tough week for Bonds and home loan rates - read on to find what's in store for the week ahead.
Forecast for the Week
After a closed market on Monday, all of the coming week's economic reports will be delivered on Wednesday and Thursday - but don't expect that any volatility will be limited to those days.
The most recent read on inflation will come via the Consumer Price Index, being reported on Wednesday alongside the latest Housing Starts and Permits data. And of particular interest - the "Meeting Minutes" from the last Federal Reserve meeting will be released as well. These Minutes give the inside commentary between members - and remember, Dallas Fed President Richard "Loose Lips" Fisher was not in agreement with the most recent cut to the Fed Funds Rate. His seemingly uncontrollable remarks regarding his concerns over inflation have rocked the markets of late, with Mortgage Bonds losing 187 basis points since his tirade on February 7th - that translates into about .375% higher for home loan rates. Bottom line - the inflation data and Fed Meeting Minutes could be real market movers. Since inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond, if the news of the week continues to reek of inflation - this could spell more bad news for Bonds and home loan rates.
Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 15, 2008)
THE TAX MAN COMETH...
And along with the tax man come the inevitable new breed of scam artists. Be on guard - criminals who want your personal information use this hectic and confusing time of year to prey on unsuspecting individuals.
Watch out for unscrupulous scammers, who are sending emails that appear to be from the IRS. The content of the emails are often written to persuade you to link to a website that will allow you to update your data or receive important information. Remember, these phony emails are quite sophisticated, and the links send you to what usually appear to be legitimate IRS or government websites. In reality, they are not. These sites will prompt you to divulge private information under the guise of the IRS requiring it, to offer a larger refund, or sometimes, ironically, to protect you from identity theft or loss of privacy.
There are some simple steps you can take to avoid falling prey to one of these scams.
Always Be Suspicious of Emails. Remember, the IRS does NOT initiate communication with taxpayers through email, but rather through the regular mail. If you receive an email that says it's from the IRS, you should immediately be suspicious and should forward it in its entirety to the IRS, so that they can take steps to shut down the fraudulent and bogus websites. The IRS requests that you forward all questionable emails to [email protected].
Double Check the URL Address. Keep in mind that all IRS websites begin with the following web address: http://www.irs.gov/ . So, if you ever click a link in an email or visit a website that you believe is related to the IRS, the first thing you should do is confirm the website begins with the correct URL address. Remember, sometimes it may "look" legitimate, but is actually an imposter site that is "phishing" for information. So always, always double check the actual URL address before you type any information in the site.
Exercise Extreme Caution with Attachments. When it comes to questionable emails, the best practice is to never open any attachments. That's because attachments are an extremely common method that hackers use to infect your computer with programs that may harm your computer or steal your personal information--often without you even knowing!
In today's technological environment, electronic communication offers us tremendous speed and convenience. But it can also be used for unethical purposes by scammers. Most organizations have worked very hard to put strict privacy policies in place. As a result, government agencies and financial institutions will rarely, if ever, ask you to divulge personal information via email.
If you receive any email asking for personal information of any kind, you should immediately be suspicious. When in doubt, call the customer service lines listed on your statements or documents and discuss the email that you received.
The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.
Economic Calendar for the Week of February 18 ? February 22
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Wed. February 20 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1035K 1068K Moderate
Wed. February 20 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1000K 1006K Moderate
Wed. February 20 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.3% 0.2% HIGH
Wed. February 20 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jan 0.3% 0.3% HIGH
Wed. February 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 2/16 NA 1066K Moderate
Wed. February 20 02:00 FOMC Minutes 1/30 HIGH
Thu. February 21 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/16 355K 348K Moderate
Thu. February 21 10:00 Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI) Jan -0.1% -0.2% Low
Thu. February 21 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Feb -10.0 -20.9 HIGH
From our newsletter... hope this can provide some value to many of you. Always open to answer your questions relating to your financial health. Tight lines!
